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Albert Mikhailov
Albert Mikhailov

Transcendence Volume 1.mp4



João, Pina-Cabral (2019) My mother or father: person, metaperson, and transcendence in ethnographic theory. Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute, 25 (2). pp. 303-323. ISSN 1359-0987. (doi:10.1111/1467-9655.13027)(KAR id:67282)




Transcendence Volume 1.mp4


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While the near-term future of the thin film pillars appears as certain as any companys can be in the moveable feast that is the PV industry, a more recent thin film arrival in Hanergy presents more questions than it is answering. Hanergy is one of Chinas largest private companies, and has created its reputation and sizeable revenue through hydropower dam construction and operation. In PV, Hanergy has made headlines through a series of CIGS acquisitions in Solibro, Global Solar, and MiaSolé. Most recently, it acquired gallium arsenide (GaAs) startup Alta Devices. In recent months, Hanergy has shown modules utilizing each of these producers processes at major solar trade shows, including the recent SPI, yet questions remain as to whether its aspirations within PV are genuine, let alone whether they will result in significant tool orders from the major suppliers. Hanergy has published ambitions to construct a towering 5.25 GW of manufacturing capacity with the various technologies it has acquired. Such volume would require tool orders the like of which have not been seem since the major c-Si capacity adds in 2009 through 2012. Hanergy has also announced plans to increase its armorphous silicon module production to 4.75 GW in a combination of a-Si/a-SiGe. Further complicating the matter, Hanergy has its own subsidiary tool supplier in Apollo PV. In a blog post published in November 2013, NPD Solarbuzzs Colville noted that the CIGS capacity expansions alone would amount to $8.6 billion in tool orders. Even a small portion of this $8.6 billion being recognized as PV equipment revenues by Apollo would probably be enough to keep Hanergy (or more specifically its Apollo PV equipment segment) as the leading PV equipment supplier (by PV tool revenue recognition) as far out as 2015, wrote Colville. But where is the output? Hanergy announced that some 1.7 GW of amorphous silicon tooling has been shipped. However, its shipment data reveals 145 MW of shipments in 2013, according to IHS. Of its CIGS operations, Colville confirms that shipments have continued from the existing manufacturing capacity of Solibro, but little in addition to that. And there are more questions. Apollo has no track record as a CIGS tool supplier representing significant risk, in Colvilles words. It was also the intended supplier of Hanergy for a-Si/a-SiGe processes, in its initial multi-GW plans for the technology. But little shipment volume supports the big talk. Hanergy has gained considerable publicity through its acquisitions and in its investment in product placement advertising in films such as Transformers 3 and Transcendence but investment in tooling may be another matter. One tool supplier, talking under the condition of anonymity, reported that it had been in discussions with Hanergy for over a year, but now considers that time wasted and Hanergys plans amount to nothing but hot air. Hanergy declined to be interviewed by pv magazine saying: At this time … [Hanergy is] not able to comment directly on our specific business development strategies or production plans.


###MARGINALIE_END### Stion reports that it is ramping up its 150 MW nameplate fab in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Frank Yang, the companys VP of business development, says that around 90% of the tooling for the fab has been delivered, with the remainder to be installed by mid-2015. Stion is producing 5 MW/month at the fab, with the company aiming to double that on delivery of the final tools. We are working today on making some incremental expansions to our factory in Mississippi with our lead equipment supplier out of Korea, says Stions Yang. We are evaluating a number of options to continue to grow the capacity out of Mississippi and in different line configurations and scales. South Koreas Avaco is supplying the sputtering and atomic layer deposition equipment to Stion, with Avaco itself having taken a $130 million stake in the U.S. firm back in 2011. Frank Yang says that Avaco is a strategic partner of Stions, with the two firms collaborating on process development. Avaco has also announced CIGS production supply deals in China, although it did not name the manufacturer. Ultimately, while Stions technology is proprietary, the manufacturing platform is relatively standard, says Yang. So the way we view our relationship with Avaco is that we are going to continue to drive the cost and performance of those tools by working with a supplier that has extremely strong technical capabilities. 140 to 150 W modules are currently rolling off Stions production lines, with efficiencies of around 13 to 14%. Yang says that around 80% of Stions output is currently supplying U.S. projects and distributors, no doubt aided by the anti-dumping duties applied to Chinese c-Si suppliers to the market. Production costs, at around half the rate it will be producing when at full scale, stand at around $1/W. With its current scale it will be difficult [for Stion] to survive, says de Haan. The recent price increase in the U.S. due to the trade case will help manufacturers there temporarily, but the critical point is to keep up with the continuous cost reduction of the crystalline world. These smaller manufacturers need strong partners to get into volumes. Colville concurs. There is still a lot of small thin film companies or R&D operations that are ambitious with their targets. Looking at it from the outside, the quick conclusion is that everything else has to be high risk. That is because you have the benefit of hindsight now having seen 10 years in which only two thin film companies managed to survive out of over 100, he says. Taiwanese producer TSMC is currently ramping production at its fab, constructed in 2011 and sized for GW-scale module manufacture. TSMCs Marc Spaulding reports that TSMC Solars production is running at 6.5 MW/month and average module wattage of 154 to 155 W. It is clear that there are significant opportunities for thin film equipment suppliers on the immediate horizon. In saying that, however, major orders have not yet arrived and some companies have suffered through many years of largely empty order books. Those in possession of diversified supply strategies have been able to survive the drought better than those more exclusively reliant on PV. Singulus Stefan Rinck sums up the mood well. The PV investment train is starting slowly and it will take quite some time to see a good number of large investments, he concludes. But we are hopeful that 2015 will present to us a better picture. 041b061a72


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